How Long Can Land Prices Keep Rising?

How Long Can Land Prices Keep Rising?

Values have risen 12% a year for the past eight years in North Dakota. Two similar periods of increasing values lasted eight and nine years, respectively.

North Dakota land values have increased by an annual average rate of about 12% during the past eight years, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

"There have been two instances during the past 100 years that have had similar periods of continuous, strong increases in land values," says Andrew Swenson, NDSU extension farm management specialist. "There was an eight-year period (1942 through 1949) that had average annual increases of 10% and a nine-year period (1973 through 1981) that averaged a 18% annual increase."

In North Dakota, the largest increase in cropland values from January 2010 to January 2011 was 25% (to $1,202 per acre) in the east-central region, followed by increases of 24% (to $883) in the south-central region and 23% (to $2,628) in the southern Red River Valley.

Cropland values increased 22% (to $920) in the north-central region, 21% (to $724) in the southwestern region and 20% (to $1,062) in the northeastern region.

The northern Red River Valley had a 16% increase to $1,792 per acre and the southeastern and northwestern regions had 12% increases to $1,660 and $590 per acre, respectively.

"Land rents, as typical, did not change as much in percentage as land values," Swenson says. "On average, cropland rents increased about 10%. This was a strong increase from the prior year's 2% upward move."

As with land values, the strongest increase (15%) occurred in the east-central region. The average rent is $51.70 per acre. Land rent rates increased an average of 11 to 12% per acre in the north-central region to $44, southern Red River Valley to $94.70, southeastern region to $74.90, northern Red River Valley to $71.60 and south-central region to $42. The northeastern region increased 7% to $45.20 per acre. The southwestern region increased 6% to $33.10 per acre and the northwestern region had the smallest increase at 5% to $32 per acre.

Source: NDSU Extension Communications

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